Gasim Ibrahim's resignation from the powerful post of Finance Minister Thursday is hot news these days. The news has been received in political circles with mixed reactions; some saying it is the end of Gasim's political future, while others view it as a new beginning for the billionaire politician. Gasim's resignation has coincided with the inauguration of President Gayoom's party second congress. It was a very impressive ceremony to mark the occasion. As a Deputy Leader of the Party, Gasim was in attendance, seated next to DRP Leader Gayoom. Speaking to a pocked meeting, President Gayoom said his party has attained maturity and he expressed every confidence of winning the upcoming presidential elections. There was jubilation and cheers to Gayoom's eloquent assurances and when other speakers highlighted the achievements of DRP under Gayoom's leadership. They said DRP is the biggest party which has played a major role in the reforms of the country and there was no party capable of beating DRP.
Gasim also spoke, but his tone was different, it reflected his thinking about party politics and meaningful reform but was short of usual compliments. What is the thinking of Gasim? Is he going to contest in the presidential race as has been speculated so much? He has always been a key reformist but has fallen out of his long standing popularity of common people. He was among the first 40 people who applied to form a political party. He was in the mass demonstration of August 12 13. He was charged for high treason which carried life imprisonment. But fortunately President Gayoom dropped the charge soon after the 2004 tsunami. There was an open invitation to Gasim from President Gayoom to join the cabinet.
In the beginning his heart and mind was too close to the opposition MDP and other reform activists. He was offered very senior ministerial posts, but he was not so keen at first. But Gasim finally accepted the offer and became Finance Minister in August 2005.Being a generous financier to DRP, he was also elected as one of the 4 Deputy Leaders of DRP. Gasim also was elected as the Speaker of the Special Majlis. A post Gasim received with lot of support from opposition parties and DRP in the end. Gasim vowed to the Majlis and people he will be faithful to the constitution and people in the important task. Gasim fulfilled the task last month and the stories heard so much that he will resign soon after the constitution is completed have come true. There are speculations he will join his close friend MP and businessman ADK Nashid's Jumhoory Party. The party is in the making and there are indications Gasim would be its presidential candidate.
But according to some analysts Gasim has made more enemies and his popularity has declined during the past three years after he became Finance Minister. Many blame his mishandling of the country's economy and budget. The country is going through the worst economic crisis. Inflation has risen beyond expectations. For the first time, budgets amounting to MRf 12 billion were passed for 2007, 2008, without guaranteed income to cover the expenditure. Gasim assured to a concerned Majlis he will generate the necessary finance to implement priority development projects. But just a day before his resignation, the Majlis severely criticized the MRf 4.4 billion budget deficit for 2008, and non compliance of appropriate fiscal and monetary policies. Some members said both the budget and Gasim have failed, and called him to resign. Gasim however defended himself and assured he will raise the finance needed to the budget.
Ironically, Gasim decided to resign after an unhappy meeting of the Cabinet Economic Committee Thursday morning. Gasim told media he was resigning due to lack of support from Government and cabinet colleagues in the difficult task of realizing the finance for the budget. While Gasim's opponents and critics were quick to condemn him for the failure of the budget and economy, Gasim strongly blamed the Government. Gasim said it was not him or the budget, but the Government which has failed. He has often told some of his colleagues are not helping him to generate the finance needed to cover the escalating government expenditure. With the reform program, Government is carrying out several mega projects costing billions of rufiyaa. There are also serious constraints to settle the wage increase crisis. The Government is also obliged to some of the urgent essential services demanded by people many of which are marked by angry protests.
Gasim would have known very well he was taking an impossible task at huge cost to his career. His opposition colleagues were very disappointed for his decision and lack of vision. They believed Gasim would have done better and helped the reform process more if he stayed with them. But he was very ambitious and attracted to such high and powerful ministerial posts. He would have thought he could handle the economy and budget favorably and will win more support from the government and people.
But things did not happen that way; it was a bad time, global economy in crisis, with soaring oil price and food scarcity. These negative effects have resulted in serious inflation and economic difficulties in the Maldives. Complaints and unhappiness about the rapid increase in the cost of living, commodities and services have become talk of the whole country. Gasim must have tried his best to cope with the situation and defend his weakening position, but it was late and of no avail, things were getting worse and out of control. Fuelled by the growing criticism of opponents, even the common people who have supported him many who have received generous help from him began to criticize him in growing numbers.
Gasim would have hoped he will be a successful Finance Minister and would be able to help the country and people to prosper. He would have hoped he would be President Gayoom's favored deputy to become Vice President and President's successor. But everything happened the opposite, and analysts say Gasim did not have a definite plan for the future. Whether he wanted to be a loyal deputy to the President, or he wanted to form an opposition to challenge the President was not so certain. They say he has finally become the victim of his indecisiveness and procrastination of what he wants to do. Yet many others say, Gasim is shrewd enough and he knows very well what he is doing. He has decided to quit the Government and start his own political agenda at the right time. But a good number of people feel the damage is already done and Gasim's popularity is fading away.
If Gasim wants to run for the presidency, it will be a near impossible task and he will face many difficult challenges. There will be many more enemies to defame him and tarnish his image. There may be new charges against him. During his government tenure, he has lost friends from the opposition. It will be extremely difficult to win the support from the main opposition party MDP and other parties in his presidential race. Of late, MDP and other opposition parties have been very critical of Gasim, They have been very vocal against what they say his failure as Finance Minister and for expanding his own business while being such an influential minister.
While Gasim is facing this dilemma, President Gayoom's own popularity and his DRP's position seem to be strengthening their momentum. The successful Second National Conference inducting popular and influential Planning Minister and President's nephew as a Deputy Leader of the party is seen as a major boost to the party. Hamdoon will be highly effective in reorganizing the party to win more support for President Gayoom in the coming election. The pragmatic young minister being very popular among the youth and in the Atolls is very likely to take over leadership of the party in a near future. At the same time, the party's first Deputy Leader and charismatic and influential Atolls Minister Ahmed Thasmeen is almost certain to be Gayoom's running mate.
The big question is who will win the election. MDP's popular founder and Presidential candidate Mohamed Nasheed, Anni has repeatedly told he will be the President from 11 November 2008.Former Attorney General Dr. Hassan Saeed and the other candidates are equally confident. According to the supporters of Gasim, he will be the next president. But opposition parties having failed to become a common alliance and agree on a common candidate, it is highly unlikely any of these candidates can defeat President Gayoom. Their only chance to constitutionally bar Gayoom from contesting for any further terms have utterly failed and Gayoom is comfortably gaining more popular support.
There is no international or other pressure against Gayoom's eligibility to run for presidency. His international stature has risen considerably. Everything seems to be in his favor. It is very certain that President Gayoom would be reelected to a seventh term with a comfortable majority. However, political observers say if the opposition can agree on a common candidate, whether Anni or Hassan Saeed Ibra or Gasim, it may still be possible to get a new president for the country. Can that be possible? Next few months will provide a definite answer.
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