In a dramatic new development, President Gayoom's brother and leader of the PA on Friday night announced he will run for presidency. Yamin who was one of the most powerful and influential ministers in Gayoom's cabinet resigned last year following a widening rivalry with Finance Minister Gasim Ibrahim. Yamin and his PA colleagues have been very critical of Gasim Ibrahim and they have continuously blamed Gasim for his incompetence.
PA has also rejected Gasim's mega budgets for 2007 and 2008 and some PA members have repeatedly called Gasim to resign. Just a day after the heated debate in Peoples Majlis about the highly deficit budget, Gasim finally resigned. But Gasim said he resigned as he has not received any support from the government and cabinet colleagues to generate the money needed for the budget. He also defended himself and said it was not the budget or himself that have failed, but the government.
Gasim's exit from government is not a surprise, it was rumored and expected. He has always said he is loyal only to the people and he will be true to meaningful reforms. He was known to be close and very supportive to the opposition. Media has covered much news about Gasim forming his own party and contesting in the presidential election. This followed the process Gasim's longtime friend businessman ADK Nashid applying to register a new political party in the name of Jumhoory Party, JP. Key organizers of the initiative have indicated on many occasions Gasim will join the party and he will be their presidential candidate.
But Gasim's political standing and popularity has suffered serious setbacks during his ministerial assignment. Fuelled by continuous attacks from his rivals and opponents for mishandling the budget and economy and rising inflation, he was under pressure and criticism from growing number people. Many of these people have received generous help from Gasim and he enjoyed a lot of support from them until the huge budgets and fast rising inflation.
Looking for the right moment, Gasim's enemies were all out to 'destroy' him and things are not happening in his favor. While this is the opinion of some people, others feel Gasim is still strong and popular, and he will win back his long standing popular support from the people. They also say, Gasim will have to make sacrifices and prove his credibility and loyalty to the people. Some analysts believe Gasim will soon emerge as a formidable presidential candidate.
While Gasim's political future hangs in balance, his arch rival Yamin Abdul Gayoom's decision to contest for presidency looks like to change the political scene dramatically. Yamin and his PA colleagues have been masterly preparing for the big game and their party is about to be officially registered. PA has already rallied lot of support through its vocal and influential campaigns. According to PA, their meeting in Addu Friday was a resounding success and they have received tremendous support from the crucial atoll.
Yamin has earned much support and trust from the people after he resigned from cabinet and became vocal against the government and for solving the pressing difficulties of the ordinary people. His knowledge and experience on the economy and budget has also made him more popular in the Majlis and public.
There was a report last year in which Yamin said he will not contest his brother President Gayoom in the election. Yamin has also repeatedly told he will be supporting his brother President Gayoom, if the latter was contesting. There are also reports that Yamin and President has bridged their differences of late, following the attitudes of Gasim Ibrahim and his lack of sincerity to the President.
Some people believe Yamin's departure from cabinet and DRP was a carefully planned strategy in the wake of the fast changing political developments. Their feeling is Yamin and Gayoom will become a strong alliance when Gasim resigns. Analysts feel Gayoom has been rather displeased with the way Gasim has been treating him and the tactful leader was waiting for Gasim's resignation.
There are talks that Yamin is the most trusted colleague of Gayoom who is very confident of his brother's leadership capabilities. Yamin is also Gayoom's best choice to take over the leadership though there may be some differences within the President's family. Gayoom's own Kaamineege family will be more than happy to back Yamin though there are some frictions between President's nephew powerful Planning Minister and newly elected DRP Deputy Leader Hamdoon Hameed. These can be patched up with the blessings of Hamdoon's father Senior Minister and veteran politician Abdullah Hameed.
Observers say the moment has come for this alliance to emerge. Yamin's announcement in Addu is very timely and it will not be a surprise if DRP and PA forge a formidable alliance very soon. President Gayoom is happy the new Constitution is amended to allow two more terms for him. But being very intelligent, Gayoom will realize the enormous problems he will face in the election and ruling the country another term. It will be a herculean task to fulfill the responsibilities and appease the people under the new constitution. Pundits say there is a possibility Gayoom may drop out from the presidential race and back Yamin and DRP's Deputy Ahmed Thasmeen as running mate.
Presidential race looks like to be very exciting and extremely competitive given the current political developments. If Yamin contests it may finally be a race between Gasim and Yamin. With Yamin's growing power and support, it will be a very tough race. Time and power, money and influence and many other advantages seem to be on Yamin's side. It is likely to be a race against the richest man in the country Gasim Ibrahim who once enjoyed tremendous support and popularity of the people. Only time will decide who will shape the destiny of Maldives from 11 November 2008.
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