Is former Maldivian President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom reviewing his political options for the future in the light of the inevitable mid-term crises facing the MDP Government of his successor, Mohammed Nasheed? The question has acquired significance in the light of Gayoom returning from a Malaysian holiday earlier than expected, to spearhead the campaign of the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) for the local council polls due in February.
Proving critics wrong, Gayoom had made an honourable exit after 30-long years of controversial rule when Nasheed as leader of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) defeated him in the run-off presidential polls in 2008. The change-over came with an understanding that the new Government would allow him to retire in honour with protection against legal action for alleged wrong-doings while in power. The MDP campaign had centered on human rights violations under the Gayoom regime, and Nasheed himself was designated 'Prisoner of Conscience' by Amnesty International.
Hiccups in the implementation of the agreement apart, there was nothing to suggest in the interim that Gayoom would consider throwing his hat into the ring. This was so, despite the fact that Gayoom had handed over the reins of the party to his vice-presidential running-mate, Thasmeen Ali. He however agreed to remain as the 'Supreme Leader' of the party, in what was considered a sinecure position with no real responsibility or authority. Not any more, or so it now seems.
To its credit, the Government has introduced ferry services among various islands, which was a long-felt need, granting a monthly pension of Rf 2000 per month for all citizens above 65 years - thus bringing in an additional monthly income of Rf 4000 for a family with elderly parents -- and offering Rf 1,000 scholarship for out-station students studying in schools in important islands where alone the facility is available, and housing for the poor, with help from countries like India. Though the world over President Nasheed is acknowledged as possibly the only Head of State with 'environmental conscience', there is nothing to suggest that it has percolated down the line in his own country, in terms of additional vote-share. However, the MDP can now hope to offset some of the inevitable anti-incumbency loss after Budget-2011, presented in December, restored the salaries of Government employees. No one is talking any more about reducing the staff strength, considering in particular that over 10 per cent of the 350,000-population holds a Government job and their family members would account for half the electorate.
Interestingly, before President Nasheedhad completed his second year in office, various segments in the Opposition already talking about nominees and aspirants for the elections that are due only in 2013. Even the MDP was seen as looking at options for the party's agenda and a running-mate for the incumbent, though no one was even thinking about a replacement. It is another matter that President Nasheed was among those instrumental in introducing primaries for the MDP to choose its nominee for Elections-2008. As things stand, he is likely to carry the party with him as and when he seeks re-election.
A new-comer to the DRP after he had contested the 2008 presidential polls against Gayoom, Naseer had left the 'Islamic fundamentalist party' that he had founded, to join the DRP, after scoring only 1.5 per cent of the popular vote. Gayoom is now being seen increasingly in Naseer's company, with his return from Malaysia announced by the latter. Gayoom and Naseer may have also embarrassed the Thasmeen leadership when the sacked leader was present at the DRP reception for the former President on his arrival in Maldives. Naseer has since accompanied Gayoom in his campaign rallies whereas Thasmeen is seen as going in 'another direction'. The question remains: How far will the visibly-ageing septuagenarian Gayoom go in his purported but unconfirmed re-entry into active politics all over again? The DRP itself may be divided on this score, the party anyway having to look at a successor to Gayoom at one level, and at the same time have a 'winnable candidate' on hand. Ahead of Gayoom's current moves, there were reports of his half-brother and People's Alliance founder Abdullah Yameen might rejoin the DRP to be projected as its presidential candidate. There were also rumours that the party may require a Gayoom family member, possibly his daughter Duniya Maumoon, as the running-mate for Thasmeen Ali. Whether President Nasheed and his campaign managers could count on flogging a 'decided issue' and unbinding the super-structures of the time is a question that the voters would be asking themselves at the time - and also provide the answer.
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